Keir Starmer is preparing to recognise Palestinian statehood as soon as September unless Israel meets key conditions, including reaching a ceasefire and committing to a long-term peace process.
The prime minister’s announcement on Tuesday marked a significant shift in the UK’s longstanding position that it would recognise Palestine as part of a peace process at the point of maximum impact.
Downing Street said Starmer would decide the extent to which Israel and Hamas had met his conditions before he made a decision beforethe UN general assembly in September.
This is the first time the government has set concrete conditions and a timeline for recognition of a Palestinian state.
What will recognising Palestine mean?
Recognition is a symbolic step but one that would infuriate the Israeli government, which argues that it would encourage Hamas and reward terrorism.
It is in effect a formal, political acknowledgment of Palestinian self-determination – without the need to engage in thorny practicalities such as the location of its borders or capital city.
It also allows the establishment of full diplomatic relations that would result in a Palestinian ambassador (rather than a head of mission) being stationed in London and a British ambassador in Palestine. Advocates say it is a way of kickstarting a political process towards an eventual two-state solution.
Out of the 193 UN member states, about 140 already recognise Palestine as a state. These include China, India and Russia, as well as a majority of European countries such as Cyprus, Ireland, Norway, Spain and Sweden. But until Thursday, when France announced it intended to recognise Palestine, no G7 country had committed to it.
Why now?
Two major international factors and heavy domestic pressure have played a role in the timing of Starmer’s announcement.
Emmanuel Macron, the French president, set the ball rolling last week when he announced that France would recognise Palestine at the UN general assembly in September. Starmer has now set himself the same deadline, though unlike Macron he has set conditions for Israel and Hamas.
The other international factor was the tacit green light that Donald Trump gave to Starmer on Monday. Asked whether the prime minister should bow to pressure from MPs to recognise Palestine, the US president told reporters: “I’m not going to take a position, I don’t mind him taking a position. I’m looking for getting people fed right now.”
Trump’s reaction to France’s announcement was similarly low-key – he said Macron’s position on a Palestinian state “doesn’t matter” or “carry any weight”.
Starmer, who has himself expressed horror at the images of starvation in Gaza, has also come under heavy domestic pressure to act. Several of his most senior cabinet ministers – including Angela Rayner and Yvette Cooper – support immediate recognition.
Some influential ministers, such as Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood, have raised the issue in cabinet meetings. More than 250 cross-party MPs have signed a letter calling for immediate recognition, including more than a third of Labour MPs.
Polling suggests that the public also backs action. In a poll commissioned by Ecotricity, the company founded by Labour donor Dale Vince, and carried out by Survation, 49% of people said the UK should recognise Palestine as a state compared with 13% who said it should not.
What is the detail of the plan?
An official government statement issued on Tuesday night said the UK would recognise Palestine at the UN general assembly unless Israel agrees to a ceasefire, makes it clear it will not annex the West Bank, and “takes substantive steps” to end the humanitarian crisis in Gaza including by allowing the UN to supply aid. This effectively requires Israel to revive the prospect of a two-state solution, an idea that Benjamin Netanyahu has long rejected.
The UK government’s statement also reiterates its demands for Hamas to immediately release all the hostages, sign up to an immediate ceasefire with Israel, commit to disarmament and accept it will play no part in the government of Gaza.
Starmer will assess the extent to which the two parties – Israel and Hamas – have met his conditions in September.
The government said that beyond recognition, it was working on a “credible peace plan” with allies to establish transitional governance and security arrangements in Gaza and ensure the delivery of UN aid. It said this plan must involve the withdrawal of Israeli forces and the removal of Hamas leadership from Gaza as steps towards a negotiated two-state solution.
Who else might join in?
The government’s statement paves the way for the UK and France to jointly recognise Palestine in September.
Several other countries are taking part in UN talks on this subject brokered by France and Saudi Arabia in New York. France expects several Arab countries to condemn Hamas and call for its disarmament for the first time in an effort to encourage more European countries to join in recognising Palestine.
European countries that do not already recognise Palestine could reassess their positions in the coming weeks – the Belgian government has said it will determine its policy in September.
Some countries, including Germany and the US, say they will recognise a Palestinian state only as part of a long-term political solution to the conflict in the Middle East.