The 2025 MLB draft is around the corner, with the first round beginning July 13.
There are a lot of challenges in baseball. Hitting sometimes seems impossible given the velocity and stuff from pitchers these days, and for those pitchers, throwing quality strikes is a test and staying healthy a huge challenge. But the most difficult thing in the sport might be drafting. It’s one thing to scout tools, it’s another to project an 18-year-old high school kid as a 25-year-old major leaguer. Finding the baseball players among the athletes or the velocity kings seems more difficult nowadays than ever.
How difficult is it? We went through the past 10 drafts, from 2015 through 2024, and redrafted the top 10 selections. Leaving aside the two most recent drafts, whose players are still very early in their evaluation, only 16 of 80 top-10 selections made the redrafted top 10. Two of the drafts are 0-for-10 in any of their top-10 selections ranking in the redrafted top 10. This helps explain why teams such as the Colorado Rockies, Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins remained mired in the muck of the standings: They haven’t drafted well (although the Pirates at least got the No. 1 pick in 2023 right last year and might have crushed last year’s top-10 pick as well).
Let’s go back through the past 10 drafts to see what the redrafts look like right now. View this through the lens of a specific moment in the baseball timeline. If we redo this piece in a few years, it will look much different than it does now, especially for the more recent drafts.
Jump to a draft:
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024
2015
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
New pick: Alex Bregman | Original pick: Dansby Swanson
Where new pick was originally drafted: 2
2. Houston Astros
New pick: Kyle Tucker | Original pick: Alex Bregman
Where new pick was originally drafted: 5
3. Colorado Rockies
New pick: Austin Riley | Original pick: Brendan Rodgers
Where new pick was originally drafted: 41
4. Texas Rangers
New pick: Dansby Swanson | Original pick: Dillon Tate
Where new pick was originally drafted: 1
5. Houston Astros
New pick: Ian Happ | Original pick: Kyle Tucker
Where new pick was originally drafted: 9
6. Minnesota Twins
New pick: Walker Buehler | Original pick: Tyler Jay
Where new pick was originally drafted: 24
7. Boston Red Sox
New pick: Andrew Benintendi | Original pick: Andrew Benintendi
8. Chicago White Sox
New pick: Brandon Lowe | Original pick: Carson Fulmer
Where new pick was originally drafted: 87
9. Chicago Cubs
New pick: Cedric Mullins | Original pick: Ian Happ
Where new pick was originally drafted: 403
10. Philadelphia Phillies
New pick: Tyler Stephenson | Original pick: Cornelius Randolph
Where new pick was originally drafted: 11
Other notable players from 2015: Harrison Bader, Jake Cronenworth, Paul DeJong, Trent Grisham, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Ryan Helsley, Ryan Mountcastle, Josh Naylor
Best draft: Houston Astros. They crushed it by taking Bregman and Tucker with the second and fifth picks, plus eight others who made the majors, including Myles Straw and Patrick Sandoval. Indeed, while Bregman currently has about 17 more career WAR than Tucker, given that Tucker is three years younger, he might end up as the best player in this draft.
Honorable mention goes to the St. Louis Cardinals, who drafted Bader and Jordan Hicks in the third round and then DeJong and Helsley in Rounds 4 and 5.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Cornelius Randolph. Viewed as perhaps the top high school bat in the draft, Randolph ended up the second high school player selected after Tucker in a college-heavy first round. Randolph didn’t hit for average or much power and never made it past Double-A — although he’s still playing professionally in the Mexican League.
Overview: This wasn’t viewed as a strong draft at the time — Keith Law, then an ESPN analyst, had called it the weakest at the top since 2000 — and that has held true a decade later, with a dearth of stars and even some of the better players such as Swanson relying heavily on defense for their value.
The Astros had the second pick for failing to sign Brady Aiken the year before, and Bregman was in the big leagues for them a year later. Tucker was chosen with their regular selection at No. 5, and then they used another first-round pick to select Daz Cameron, who turned into one of the key players used to acquire Justin Verlander in 2017.
The oddest story out of this draft came courtesy of the short-lived Tony La Russa/Dave Stewart regime in Arizona. After selecting Swanson with the first pick, the Diamondbacks traded him and a good outfielder in Ender Inciarte (coming off a 5.0-WAR season) to Atlanta for Shelby Miller in December 2015.
“I think the Diamondbacks are nuts,” Law said at the time. “It’s one thing to win now. It’s another to just give away surplus value.”
The deal backfired for Arizona when Miller immediately got hurt to start the 2016 season and struggled thereafter, contributing to the team going 69-93, which cost La Russa and Stewart their jobs.
2016
1. Philadelphia Phillies
New pick: Will Smith | Original pick: Mickey Moniak
Where new pick was originally drafted: 32
2. Cincinnati Reds
New pick: Corbin Burnes | Original pick: Nick Senzel
Where new pick was originally drafted: 111
3. Atlanta Braves
New pick: Pete Alonso | Original pick: Ian Anderson
Where new pick was originally drafted: 64
4. Colorado Rockies
New pick: Bo Bichette | Original pick: Riley Pint
Where new pick was originally drafted: 66
5. Milwaukee Brewers
New pick: Zac Gallen | Original pick: Corey Ray
Where new pick was originally drafted: 106
6. Oakland Athletics
New pick: Shane Bieber | Original pick: A.J. Puk
Where new pick was originally drafted: 122
7. Miami Marlins
New pick: Tommy Edman | Original pick: Braxton Garrett
Where new pick was originally drafted: 196
8. San Diego Padres
New pick: Bryan Reynolds | Original pick: Cal Quantrill
Where new pick was originally drafted: 59
9. Detroit Tigers
New pick: Sean Murphy | Original pick: Matt Manning
Where new pick was originally drafted: 83
10. Chicago White Sox
New pick: Michael King | Original pick: Zack Collins
Where new pick was originally drafted: 353
Other notable players from 2016: TJ Friedl, Tony Gonsolin, Austin Hays, Josh Lowe, Nathaniel Lowe, Gavin Lux, Jesus Luzardo, Brandon Marsh, Cole Ragans
Best draft: Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers snagged Lux with the No. 20 pick and then college catcher Smith with the 32nd selection — and 12 others who have reached the majors. Gonsolin and Dustin May are two of those players and have shown flashes of success interspersed with many injuries, but both remain on the Dodgers’ roster (Gonsolin is currently injured again). Another honorable mention to the Cardinals for their midround magic, taking Gallen in the third round and Edman in the sixth, although Gallen was traded alongside Sandy Alcantara to the Marlins as part of the Marcell Ozuna trade.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Riley Pint. A high school right-hander from Kansas, Pint routinely hit 100 mph — topping out at 102 — and was regarded as perhaps the hardest-throwing high school pitcher of all time. The Rockies took him with the fourth pick, with some viewing him as possessing the highest ceiling in the draft. Alas … that was not the case.
“Despite his clean arm action, he has a head-jerk at release that could make it hard for him to throw consistent strikes,” Law wrote on ESPN. Pint did have trouble throwing strikes, and while he retired temporarily in 2021, he at least managed to briefly reach the majors with the Rockies in 2023-24.
Overview: In a draft that lacked a clear-cut No. 1 selection, the Phillies went with California high school outfielder Moniak, regarded as the best pure hitter in the draft. He has made more than 1,000 plate appearances in the majors but has never mastered the strike zone and has a career on-base percentage under .300.
He’s not the only first-round pick who didn’t make it big, however. In fact, the top 30 picks have combined for just one All-Star appearance — Ragans, the 30th selection, made it last year with the Royals. But that doesn’t mean there wasn’t talent available. The 10 players we redrafted above have combined for 18 All-Star appearances and two Cy Young Awards, from Burnes and Bieber. They were both fourth-round picks, Burnes out of Saint Mary’s College and Bieber out of UC Santa Barbara. Burnes just underwent Tommy John surgery, though, while Bieber is on the mend from his TJ surgery last year, so their career values might now be more limited.
2017
1. Minnesota Twins
New pick: Hunter Greene | Original pick: Royce Lewis
Where new pick was originally drafted: 2
2. Cincinnati Reds
New pick: Daulton Varsho | Original pick: Hunter Greene
Where new pick was originally drafted: 68
3. San Diego Padres
New pick: MacKenzie Gore | Original pick: MacKenzie Gore
4. Tampa Bay Rays
New pick: David Peterson | Original pick: Brendan McKay
Where new pick was originally drafted: 20
5. Atlanta Braves
New pick: Royce Lewis | Original pick: Kyle Wright
Where new pick was originally drafted: 1
6. Oakland Athletics
New pick: Bailey Ober | Original pick: Austin Beck
Where new pick was originally drafted: 346
7. Arizona Diamondbacks
New pick: Brent Rooker | Original pick: Pavin Smith
Where new pick was originally drafted: 35
8. Philadelphia Phillies
New pick: Mark Vientos | Original pick: Adam Haseley
Where new pick was originally drafted: 59
9. Milwaukee Brewers
New pick: Heliot Ramos | Original pick: Keston Hiura
Where new pick was originally drafted: 19
10. Los Angeles Angels
New pick: Jose Caballero | Original pick: Jo Adell
Where new pick was originally drafted: 202
Other notable players from 2017: Shane Baz, Griffin Canning, Jeremiah Estrada, Tanner Houck, Jake Meyers, Clarke Schmidt, JP Sears, Taylor Walls
Best draft: Minnesota Twins. The Twins drafted three players who made our top-10 redraft list in Lewis (whom they did choose with the first overall pick), Rooker (No. 35) and Ober (a 12th-round pick), although Lewis’ ranking remains more speculative in the hopes that he can figure out a way to remain healthy and produce some offense. He hasn’t done either so far in 2025.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Keston Hiura. While other picks — such as McKay and Wright — were sidetracked by injuries, Hiura quickly reached the majors in 2019 and looked like a future star after hitting .303/.368/.570 in 84 games. A lot of players had phony numbers that season, however, and his high strikeout rate caught up to him in 2020. He has spent most of the past three seasons in the minors.
Overview: In the 2015 overview, we pointed out that year’s draft class was viewed as the worst since 2000. Well, 2017 was viewed at the time as perhaps even weaker than 2015.
“You’ve probably heard by now, from me or from others who cover the draft, that this year’s class is weaker than normal,” Law wrote in his draft rankings. “I still believe this is true, perhaps even more today than I did a month ago.”
While there is still time for some players here to improve, they’re running out of time: The college players are now 29 or 30 years old, and the high school draftees are in their mid-20s. The only players with even 10 career WAR so far are Varsho and Greene, with Ober getting close. Heck, Taylor Walls, a player with a career average under .200, actually ranks fourth in career WAR thanks to his outstanding defense — but that merely confirms how weak this class has been.
In fact, at the time of his ranking, Law wrote that even the 2000 class had produced eight players with 30 WAR (it’s now nine). That class also has two potential Hall of Famers in Yadier Molina and Chase Utley, a 200-game winner in Adam Wainwright and Cy Young winners in Cliff Lee and Brandon Webb (plus some great hitters in Adrian Gonzalez, Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista). While the first round in 2000 was weak, there was plenty of talent later in the draft. The 2017 draft was weak in both areas — and maybe will go down as the weakest draft of all time.
2018
1. Detroit Tigers
New pick: Tarik Skubal | Original pick: Casey Mize
Where new pick was originally drafted: 255
2. San Francisco Giants
New pick: Cal Raleigh | Original pick: Joey Bart
Where new pick was originally drafted: 90
3. Philadelphia Phillies
New pick: Jeremy Pena | Original pick: Alec Bohm
Where new pick was originally drafted: 102
4. Chicago White Sox
New pick: Steven Kwan | Original pick: Nick Madrigal
Where new pick was originally drafted: 163
5. Cincinnati Reds
New pick: Nico Hoerner | Original pick: Jonathan India
Where new pick was originally drafted: 24
6. New York Mets
New pick: Logan Gilbert | Original pick: Jarred Kelenic
Where new pick was originally drafted: 14
7. San Diego Padres
New pick: Jarren Duran | Original pick: Ryan Weathers
Where new pick was originally drafted: 220
8. Atlanta Braves
New pick: Joe Ryan | Original pick: Carter Stewart
Where new pick was originally drafted: 210
9. Oakland Athletics
New pick: Brice Turang | Original pick: Kyler Murray
Where new pick was originally drafted: 21
10. Pittsburgh Pirates
New pick: Lawrence Butler | Original pick: Travis Swaggerty
Where new pick was originally drafted: 173
Other notable players from 2018: Kyle Bradish, Kris Bubic, Triston Casas, Brendan Donovan, Xavier Edwards, Ryan Jeffers, Shane McClanahan, Lars Nootbaar, Logan O’Hoppe, Drew Rasmussen, Grayson Rodriguez, Brady Singer
Best draft: Seattle Mariners. You could go with the Tampa Bay Rays, who showed their penchant for identifying pitchers with Matthew Liberatore (first round), McClanahan (first round), Taj Bradley (fifth round) and Ryan (seventh round). The Tigers also got Mize, Skubal and Parker Meadows. But we’ll go with Seattle’s draft, even though it’s just two players in Raleigh and Gilbert. Given the scarcity of good catchers, Raleigh has a case as the potential No. 1 pick in a redraft, especially with what he’s doing in 2025, but Skubal might be on his way to a second straight Cy Young Award, giving him that first selection in our redraft.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Kyler Murray/Carter Stewart. This draft had two of the more curious outcomes in recent draft history. Murray’s story is well known. The A’s pulled a mild surprise in taking him ninth overall even though he had played just one full season of baseball at Oklahoma. They gave him a $4.66 million signing bonus and agreed to let him play one more year of college football before beginning his baseball career. Murray won the Heisman Trophy that fall and ditched baseball for the NFL.
Stewart’s story is less known. A big high school right-hander from Florida, Stewart was up to 98 mph with a high-spin curveball. He was No. 2 on ESPN’s draft board and No. 5 on MLB.com’s, and he went eighth to the Braves. A wrist injury reportedly caused the Braves to lower their bonus offer, which Stewart declined to sign and he enrolled in junior college instead. Rather than waiting for the 2019 draft, however, he signed to play in Japan with the Fukuoaka Soft Bank Hawks on a six-year deal worth a reported $6 million — becoming the first U.S.-born first-round pick to sign his first professional contract with a Japanese team.
After some time in the Japanese minor leagues, Stewart had a breakout season in 2024, posting a 1.95 ERA in 120 innings. Along the way, he signed a two-year, $10 million extension. He has been injured so far in 2025 and hasn’t pitched, but he would still be just 27 when he becomes an unrestricted free agent after 2026.
Overview: While this draft hasn’t necessarily produced a long list of big stars, the overall depth is impressive — even though the top 10 selections have been underwhelming, with India leading that group with less than 7 career WAR. Mize was the no-doubt top pick after a dominant junior season at Auburn and, after a slow start to his career and Tommy John surgery in 2022, is having his best season in 2025. The Giants would have been better off selecting a different ACC catcher than Bart (Georgia Tech) as the Mariners got Raleigh (Florida State) in the third round.
The steal of the draft, of course, has been Skubal, a ninth-round pick out of Seattle University. He had Tommy John surgery in 2016 and missed the 2017 season, although he returned to throw some bullpens before the draft. The Diamondbacks took him in the 29th round, but he returned to school. Even though he was up to 95 mph, his wildness scared teams off.
A key to the long-term value of this draft will be the health of the pitchers. Mize, Rasmussen and Bubic have already returned from injuries (multiple Tommy John surgeries in Rasmussen’s case). Bradish, McClanahan and Rodriguez have yet to pitch in 2025, and Gilbert is currently on the injured list as well.
2019
1. Baltimore Orioles
New pick: Bobby Witt Jr. | Original pick: Adley Rutschman
Where new pick was originally drafted: 2
2. Kansas City Royals
New pick: Gunnar Henderson | Original pick: Bobby Witt Jr.
Where new pick was originally drafted: 42
3. Chicago White Sox
New pick: Corbin Carroll | Original pick: Andrew Vaughn
Where new pick was originally drafted: 16
4. Miami Marlins
New pick: Riley Greene | Original pick: JJ Bleday
Where new pick was originally drafted: 5
5. Detroit Tigers
New pick: Adley Rutschman | Original pick: Riley Greene
Where new pick was originally drafted: 1
6. San Diego Padres
New pick: CJ Abrams | Original pick: CJ Abrams
7. Cincinnati Reds
New pick: Hunter Brown | Original pick: Nick Lodolo
Where new pick was originally drafted: 166
8. Texas Rangers
New pick: Michael Harris II | Original pick: Josh Jung
Where new pick was originally drafted: 98
9. Atlanta Braves
New pick: Anthony Volpe | Original pick: Shea Langeliers
Where new pick was originally drafted: 30
10. San Francisco Giants
New pick: George Kirby | Original pick: Hunter Bishop
Where new pick was originally drafted: 20
Other notable players from 2019: Michael Busch, Kerry Carpenter, Brenton Doyle, Tyler Fitzgerald, Hunter Gaddis, Nick Lodolo, Vinnie Pasquantino, Ryan Pepiot, Josh Smith, Spencer Steer, Bryson Stott, Matt Wallner
Best draft: Baltimore Orioles. Rutschman was the consensus top player after a stellar career at Oregon State that saw him hit .411/.575/.751 his draft year, and the Orioles ended up going chalk by taking him at No. 1 after some smoke they might go in a different direction. Henderson was the first pick of the second round out of an Alabama high school, with concerns about his ability to stay at shortstop and ultimate power upside, but he has proven skeptics wrong on both accounts. The Orioles also got Kyle Stowers later in Round 2 and Joey Ortiz in Round 4, both later traded for pitching help.
The Diamondbacks drafted eight players who have since made the majors, including Carroll out of a Seattle high school with the 16th pick. Another honorable mention to the Braves, who got Harris in the third round, Langeliers in the first round (part of the Matt Olson trade) and Vaughn Grissom in the 11th round (traded for Chris Sale).
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Andrew Vaughn. The third pick out of Cal, Vaughn was viewed as a sure thing, a polished college hitter on par with Rutschman. In college, he combined a high average with power and plate discipline (104 walks to 51 strikeouts his sophomore and junior seasons), but he has hit just .248/.303/.407 in the majors. The White Sox finally gave up and recently traded him to the Brewers, who sent him to the minors. His plate discipline didn’t translate to the pros and a slow bat has limited damage on contact.
Overview: Witt gets first slot in the redraft over Henderson. Witt was second or third on most predraft boards, although there was some concern that he was already 19 years old at draft time — a big red flag for teams who follow draft models that view older high schoolers as a negative. Obviously it wasn’t, and Witt is now one of the game’s biggest stars. I have Greene ahead of Rutschman in the redraft on account of age — he’s three years younger — and current level of production. You could make a similar argument for Abrams. Brown is climbing this list, while Harris burst on the scene with a Rookie of the Year season in 2022, but his offense has stagnated the past two seasons due to a hyper-aggressive approach that has him with one of the highest chase rates in the majors.
Still, after the mediocre returns from the 2015-17 drafts, this looks a little more like what you might think a top 10 should look like, with at least three major stars in Witt, Henderson and Carroll leading the way. It’s not a historic class, but it’s a reminder that most drafts aren’t loaded with future stars.
2020
1. Detroit Tigers
New pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong | Original pick: Spencer Torkelson
Where new pick was originally drafted: 19
2. Baltimore Orioles
New pick: Garrett Crochet | Original pick: Heston Kjerstad
Where new pick was originally drafted: 11
3. Miami Marlins
New pick: Spencer Strider | Original pick: Max Meyer
Where new pick was originally drafted: 126
4. Kansas City Royals
New pick: Masyn Winn | Original pick: Asa Lacy
Where new pick was originally drafted: 54
5. Minnesota Twins
New pick: Austin Wells | Original pick: Austin Martin
Where new pick was originally drafted: 28
6. Seattle Mariners
New pick: Jordan Westburg | Original pick: Emerson Hancock
Where new pick was originally drafted: 30
7. Pittsburgh Pirates
New pick: Evan Carter | Original pick: Nick Gonzales
Where new pick was originally drafted: 50
8. San Diego Padres
New pick: Jared Jones | Original pick: Robert Hassell III
Where new pick was originally drafted: 44
9. Colorado Rockies
New pick: Kyle Harrison | Original pick: Zac Veen
Where new pick was originally drafted: 85
10. Los Angeles Angels
New pick: Spencer Torkelson | Original pick: Reid Detmers
Where new pick was originally drafted: 1
Other notable players from 2020: Mick Abel, Patrick Bailey, Dillon Dingler, Bryce Elder, Colt Keith, Coby Mayo, Cade Smith, Tyler Soderstrom, Gavin Stone, Jordan Walker
Best draft: Atlanta Braves. In a draft shortened to five rounds because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Braves selected three major leaguers in their four picks, including Strider in the fourth round and 2023 All-Star Elder in the fourth. Strider had undergone Tommy John surgery at Clemson in 2019 and made just four appearances in 2020 before the pandemic, so scouts had a limited post-surgery look at him. The Orioles could also be here with Westburg, Kjerstad and Mayo, but the latter two have yet to do any damage in the majors despite their high prospect rankings.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Jordan Walker. The Cardinals took Walker with the 21st pick, and it soon looked like he might end up as the top player from this draft after he zoomed through the minors and reached the majors in 2023 at age 21, hitting a more-than-respectable .276/.342/.445 with 16 home runs in 117 games. But he has been unable to come close to that production the past two seasons as he has struggled to make contact. The raw tools — bat speed and projectable power — are still there and he’s still just 23 years old, but it has been a frustrating two years.
Overview: The 2020 draft was always going to be unpredictable as college seasons shut down after a few weeks because of the pandemic and some high school seasons never even got going, so scouts had limited spring viewings of prospects. The draft was limited to five rounds, and teams focused on college players early, with eight of the first 10 picks from the collegiate ranks.
Still, even by these difficult measures, we haven’t seen great results from those first 10 picks, with only Torkelson making the redraft top 10 — and even then, you could argue for Tyler Soderstrom, defensive stalwart Patrick Bailey or Cade Smith, who has excelled as a reliever after Cleveland signed him as an undrafted free agent. There remains a lot of unknowns for some of the players in the redraft top 10: Jared Jones had Tommy John surgery this season, Evan Carter had a breakout postseason in helping the Rangers win the World Series in 2023 but had injury issues last season, and Harrison was just traded to the Red Sox.
There’s no doubt about the top guy at this particular moment, however, as Crow-Armstrong, on his way to a possible 40-40 season in his first full year in the majors, leaps over Crochet and Strider. Unfortunately for the Mets, who drafted him 19th overall out of famed Harvard-Westlake High School in Los Angeles, they traded him to the Cubs for Javier Baez in 2022.
2021
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
New pick: James Wood | Original pick: Henry Davis
Where new pick was originally drafted: 62
2. Texas Rangers
New pick: Jackson Merrill | Original pick: Jack Leiter
Where new pick was originally drafted: 27
3. Detroit Tigers
New pick: Marcelo Mayer | Original pick: Jackson Jobe
Where new pick was originally drafted: 4
4. Boston Red Sox
New pick: Spencer Schwellenbach | Original pick: Marcelo Mayer
Where new pick was originally drafted: 59
5. Baltimore Orioles
New pick: Bryan Woo | Original pick: Colton Cowser
Where new pick was originally drafted: 174
6. Arizona Diamondbacks
New pick: Bryce Miller | Original pick: Jordan Lawlar
Where new pick was originally drafted: 113
7. Kansas City Royals
New pick: Tanner Bibee | Original pick: Frank Mozzicato
Where new pick was originally drafted: 156
8. Colorado Rockies
New pick: Andrew Abbott | Original pick: Benny Montgomery
Where new pick was originally drafted: 53
9. Los Angeles Angels
New pick: Bubba Chandler | Original pick: Sam Bachman
Where new pick was originally drafted: 72
10. New York Mets
New pick: Andrew Painter | Original pick: Kumar Rocker
Where new pick was originally drafted: 13
Other notable players from 2021: Noah Cameron, Ben Casparius, Colton Cowser, Harry Ford, Sal Frelick, Brady House, Jackson Jobe, Kyle Manzardo, Matt McLain, Mason Miller, Max Muncy, Ben Rice, Carson Williams, Gavin Williams, Jacob Young
Best draft: San Diego Padres. The Padres are often unpredictable in the draft, but they love high-upside talent and might have gotten the two best players from this draft in Wood and Merrill. Merrill was the 27th overall pick, the highest-drafted Maryland high school player this century. He was a late riser whom many scouts hadn’t even seen until a couple weeks before the draft. Wood went with the 62nd pick out of IMG Academy in Florida, and scouts knew all about his power but had concerns about his hit tool. Well, he has figured out the hit thing and will be headed to the All-Star Game … as a member of the Nationals, after he was traded in the Juan Soto deal.
Honorable mention to the Mariners, who drafted collegiate pitchers Miller in the fourth round and Woo in the sixth, with both rising quickly to the majors and having immediate success in Seattle (although Miller is currently injured). Catcher Harry Ford was their first-round pick, and he’s a consensus top-50 prospect playing well in Triple-A, while second-round pick Edwin Arroyo was a key player dealt to Cincinnati in the Luis Castillo trade.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Henry Davis. There was no consensus best player in 2021, so the Pirates went with Louisville catcher Davis and signing him to a below-slot bonus to spread their pool money around (four of the next five picks each received a higher bonus). Davis was viewed as having the highest floor of the potential top choices, but he just hasn’t hit in the majors and is the backup catcher for the Pirates with a sub-.200 career average. With the savings on Davis, however, the Pirates did give third-round pick Bubba Chandler $2 million above slot to pull him away from a Clemson football scholarship, and he’s now the top pitching prospect in the minors.
Overview: This draft looks like it will be pretty deep in talent, especially on the pitching side — depending on long-term health. For now, I’ve slotted the pitchers who have proven themselves in the majors ahead of the ones who haven’t, but in a few years, it’s certainly possible that Chandler and Painter will be the top pitchers from this draft.
Wood or Merrill for the top player? There’s a case to be made for Merrill, because he plays center field while Wood is in left, but Wood’s bat is already special, with huge raw power and a good eye at the plate. He could be on his way to a 40-homer season in his age-22 season. Merrill is more aggressive, which might ultimately limit his OBP upside in comparison to Wood. If Wood was a bad corner outfielder, you might still go with Merrill, but at least for now Wood still runs well and plays an above-average left field.
Mayer slots in third. He was the top player on some draft boards and has played well in the minors with the range to play shortstop (although the Red Sox have used him at third base since his callup). Shortstop Carson Williams of the Rays, a late first-round pick, had helium entering 2025 but has struggled to make contact in Triple-A, he so falls out of the top 10 redraft — though, he has the talent to eventually climb back in. Lawlar ranked seventh on Kiley McDaniel’s recent top 50 prospects update, but he has had some injury issues in the minors and is 4-for-50 in a couple of major league trials. He merits consideration for the top 10, although he’s now blocked at shortstop in Arizona by Geraldo Perdomo.
2022
1. Baltimore Orioles
New pick: Roman Anthony | Original pick: Jackson Holliday
Where new pick was originally drafted: 79
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
New pick: Zach Neto | Original pick: Druw Jones
Where new pick was originally drafted: 13
3. Texas Rangers
New pick: Jackson Holliday | Original pick: Kumar Rocker
Where new pick was originally drafted: 1
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
New pick: Jacob Misiorowski | Original pick: Termarr Johnson
Where new pick was originally drafted: 63
5. Washington Nationals
New pick: Drake Baldwin | Original pick: Elijah Green
Where new pick was originally drafted: 96
6. Miami Marlins
New pick: Dalton Rushing | Original pick: Jacob Berry
Where new pick was originally drafted: 40
7. Chicago Cubs
New pick: Cade Horton | Original pick: Cade Horton
8. Minnesota Twins
New pick: Jett Williams | Original pick: Brooks Lee
Where new pick was originally drafted: 14
9. Kansas City Royals
New pick: Noah Schultz | Original pick: Gavin Cross
Where new pick was originally drafted: 26
10. Colorado Rockies
New pick: Victor Scott II | Original pick: Gabriel Hughes
Where new pick was originally drafted: 157
Other notable players from 2022: Hayden Birdsong, Justin Crawford, Chase Meidroth, Chandler Simpson, Drew Thorpe, Jonah Tong, Cole Young
Best draft: New York Mets. Williams, the 14th overall pick, is one of the top shortstop prospects in the minors while Tong, a seventh-round pick out of Canada, is having a monster season in Double-A averaging more than 14 K’s per nine. Third-rounder Blade Tidwell has also reached the majors. Kevin Parada, a catcher from Georgia Tech taken three spots ahead of Williams, has struggled to hit, however.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Elijah Green. The 2022 draft featured several talented high school position players, with Holliday, Jones, Johnson and Green all going in the top five picks. Holliday quickly became the top prospect in the minors and is playing well for the Orioles, but the other three have all struggled to live up to the hype so far. Green was always the riskiest of the group but had physical tools that drew comparisons to Ronald Acuna Jr. Concerns about his contact rate have proven true, however, and after whiffing 206 times in Single-A in 2024, he’s hitting under .200 in High-A this year.
Overview: While the top high school bats have yet to perform, the Red Sox got Anthony at the end of the second round with the 79th pick. His status as the top prospect in the minors before his recent call-up earns him the top slot in this redraft. Just to show how difficult drafting is, however: The Red Sox drafted two high school shortstops before they selected Anthony.
I have Neto ahead of Holliday for now, in part because Neto is a shortstop while Holliday has had to move to second base (and not just because of Gunnar Henderson — Holliday’s range and arm wouldn’t play at shortstop). Holliday is three years younger and just 21 years old, so there’s still plenty of time for his bat to improve. Neto was the 13th pick out of Campbell, in the Big South Conference — a late riser his draft year. He reached the majors with the Angels in 2023, and his power has been even better than projected, with 23 home runs in 2024 as part of an impressive 5.1-WAR season. You’d like to see him improve his strikeout-to-walk ratio, but he’s the best Angels draft pick since Mike Trout.
2023
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
New pick: Paul Skenes | Original pick: Paul Skenes
2. Washington Nationals
New pick: Jacob Wilson | Original pick: Dylan Crews
Where new pick was originally drafted: 6
3. Detroit Tigers
New pick: Wyatt Langford | Original pick: Max Clark
Where new pick was originally drafted: 4
4. Texas Rangers
New pick: Max Clark | Original pick: Wyatt Langford
Where new pick was originally drafted: 3
5. Minnesota Twins
New pick: Walker Jenkins | Original pick: Walker Jenkins
6. Oakland Athletics
New pick: Kristian Campbell | Original pick: Jacob Wilson
Where new pick was originally drafted: 132
7. Cincinnati Reds
New pick: Dylan Crews | Original pick: Rhett Lowder
Where new pick was originally drafted: 2
8. Kansas City Royals
New pick: Colt Emerson | Original pick: Blake Mitchell
Where new pick was originally drafted: 22
9. Colorado Rockies
New pick: Kevin McGonigle | Original pick: Chase Dollander
Where new pick was originally drafted: 37
10. Miami Marlins
New pick: Chase Dollander | Original pick: Noble Meyer
Where new pick was originally drafted: 9
Other notable players from 2023: Bryce Eldridge, Zyhir Hope, Luke Keaschall, George Lombard Jr., Aidan Miller, Arjun Nimmala, Nolan Schanuel, Matt Shaw, Kyle Teel
Best draft: Detroit Tigers. Certainly, it’s way too early to tell here. Maybe it’s just the Pirates with Skenes. The Red Sox got Campbell in the fourth round with first-rounder Teel going to the White Sox in the Garrett Crochet trade. But let’s go with the Tigers as Clark and McGonigle, both high school selections, have hit well in the lower minors and could be excellent all-around players if their power develops. Second-rounder Max Anderson is having a big season in Double-A, and fifth-round pitcher Jaden Hamm, out of Middle Tennessee State, has also been in Double-A all season after having a strong year in 2024 in High-A.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Dylan Crews. By no means are we writing Crews off — we still have him going seventh in the redraft — but his early scuffles in the majors, including a .196 average in 2025, are surprising given the numbers he put up at LSU (.426/.567/.713 as a junior). The plate discipline he had in college hasn’t translated to the pros, and he didn’t tear up the minors in 2024. His MLB numbers also pale in comparison to Langford, who went two picks later. Still, we need more than 300 plate appearances before passing final judgment.
Overview: Remember, it was a slam dunk for the Pirates to take Skenes. Pitchers come with their obvious injury risks, while Crews and Langford were two of the more accomplished college hitters in recent years. But still, they clearly made the right choice.
Wilson was a bit of a surprise pick at sixth overall for the A’s. Scouts loved his elite contact ability coming out of Grand Canyon University, but you don’t project anyone to hit .350 in the majors and Wilson has a chance to do that. His power has been the biggest surprise, as he’s already exceeding the Nico Hoerner comparisons. He’s not going to be a Gold Glove shortstop, but he’s competent enough there to slot ahead of Langford in the redraft at No. 2. The ultimate strength of this draft will rely on the talented group of high school hitters — Clark, Jenkins, Emerson, McGonigle, Miller, Eldridge, Nimmala and others — who look good so far with some of them starting to get tested in the upper minors. Eldrige is super intriguing: The 6-foot-7 slugger is just 20 years old and already in Triple-A for the Giants.
2024
1. Cleveland Guardians
New pick: Jac Caglianone | Original pick: Travis Bazzana
Where new pick was originally drafted: 6
2. Cincinnati Reds
New pick: Chase Burns | Original pick: Chase Burns
3. Colorado Rockies
New pick: Konnor Griffin | Original pick: Charlie Condon
Where new pick was originally drafted: 9
4. Oakland Athletics
New pick: Nick Kurtz | Original pick: Nick Kurtz
5. Chicago White Sox
New pick: JJ Wetherholt | Original pick: Hagen Smith
Where new pick was originally drafted: 7
6. Kansas City Royals
New pick: Travis Bazzana | Original pick: Jac Caglianone
Where new pick was originally drafted: 1
7. St. Louis Cardinals
New pick: Cam Smith | Original pick: JJ Wetherholt
Where new pick was originally drafted: 14
8. Los Angeles Angels
New pick: Bryce Rainer | Original pick: Christian Moore
Where new pick was originally drafted: 11
9. Pittsburgh Pirates
New pick: Hagen Smith | Original pick: Konnor Griffin
Where new pick was originally drafted: 5
10. Washington Nationals
New pick: Charlie Condon | Original pick: Seaver King
Where new pick was originally drafted: 3
Other notable players from 2024: Slade Caldwell, Theo Gillen, Braden Montgomery
Best draft: Kansas City Royals. It’s way too early to do anything but guess here, but the Royals are obviously ecstatic getting Caglianone with the sixth overall selection. He has a chance to be the power hitter from this draft and a potential star to line up next to Bobby Witt Jr. Second-round high school lefty David Shields has impressed early in Single-A, while a couple of pitchers out of the University of Tennessee, Drew Bream and A.J. Causey, could advance quickly.
Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Charlie Condon. As with Crews, we need to give Condon a lot more time, but after one of the most dominant seasons in NCAA history at Georgia (.433, 37 HRs), Condon’s initial returns in pro ball have raised concerns — especially given what Caglianone and Kurtz have done to already reach the majors. In 25 games in High-A after getting drafted, Condon hit .180 with 34 strikeouts and four walks. He then fractured his wrist in spring training. He’s back at High-A Spokane and has hit better (.333/.457/.457) and at least improved his walk and strikeout rates (22 walks, 24 strikeouts). Still, High-A isn’t much of a challenge for an SEC performer like Condon, so the Rockies will need to get a read on him in Double-A.
Overview: We did a lot of moving around in the top 10 redraft, but this already looks like one of the most interesting drafts in a long time. Really, you could already make the case for five or six different players now going first, including Bazzana, the actual top overall pick.
Would Caglianone really go No. 1? Maybe not, given the bias against first basemen going first overall, but we’re at a moment when it appears Caglianone might have the highest ceiling of any player given his plus-plus-plus power potential. Kansas City is trying Caglianone in right field, and that is a work in progress, but it would be a huge boon to the Royals if it did work out, as they’re desperate for outfield power and Vinnie Pasquantino is locked in at first base. Caglianone’s high chase rate remains an issue, but he has already been improving from his college days and is striking out just 20% of the time in the majors (compared to 32% for Kurtz, who has tapped into more power so far than Caglianone).
Griffin is also an exciting player to watch. A two-way talent from a Mississippi high school where he was the national player of the year, Griffin had perhaps the highest ceiling in the draft and is showing that so far, hitting .344/.408/.552 in Single-A, already earning a promotion to High-A and looking good at shortstop so far.
As for Bazzana, he’s currently out because of an oblique strain, but his pro numbers have been underwhelming, hitting .238 last year in 27 games at High-A and .252 with 39 strikeouts in 33 games so far in Double-A this year. At the same level, Wetherholt has hit .322 with more walks than strikeouts and has the defensive chops to remain in the infield (most likely at second base, especially with Masyn Winn entrenched at shortstop in St. Louis) while Bazzana might end up moving from second base to left field.
Still, with Smith already performing for the Astros after the Cubs traded him in the Kyle Tucker deal and Kurtz producing for the A’s, plus Caglianone and Moore in the majors as well, the early returns from this draft look excellent. Besides Griffin, some of the other high school selections such as Rainer, Gillen and Caldwell look promising.