The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby on Monday will set the stage for the Midsummer Classic, and there’s a litany of All-Stars part of the Home Run Derby 2025 field. Atlanta’s Matt Olson will be the fan favorite, but Seattle’s Cal Raleigh, is the betting favorite. However, a pair of 22-year-olds in James Wood and Junior Caminero will want to put on a show before playing in their first All-Star Games the next night. The MLB HR Derby will see seven of the eight participants making their derby debuts, while Acuna is appearing for the third time.
The 2025 MLB HR Derby takes place at 8 p.m. ET (streaming on fubo), with each player seeing 40 pitches in the first round. Four will then advance to the semifinals, in which they’ll be seeded based on first-round performance, before the two winners then advance to the final which consists of 27 pitches. Raleigh is the +310 favorite (risk $100 to win $310) in the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby odds, followed by Oneil Cruz (+330) and Wood (+380). Olson, who replaced Ronald Acuna Jr. in the field, is a longshot at +950. The over/under for total homers in the Home Run Derby is 240.5. Cruz (+170) is the favorite to hit the longest home run. Before locking in any 2025 MLB Home Run Derby picks, you need to see what SportsLine expert Matt Severance has to say.
Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Severance quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past four MLB seasons, he is up $1,681 and is SportsLine’s No. 1 MLB expert. He enters the All-Star break on a 181-111 roll on MLB picks (+898). Anybody following him could have seen huge returns.
Now, he has studied the latest 2025 Home Run Derby odds and locked in his picks. Head to SportsLine now to see them, and new users can see the latest BetMGM promo code, FanDuel promo code or DraftKings promo code to get even more value.
2025 Home Run Derby expert prediction
One surprise: Severance is staying away from Raleigh in the Home Run Derby 2025 even though he’s the favorite and the majors’ home run leader with 36 dingers. A switch hitter, Raleigh has indicated that he’ll hit from both sides of the plate in the derby, which is something only Adley Rutschman (2023) has done in the event’s history. Rutschman failed to advance past the first round when he 20 homers left-handed and then seven more right-handed two years ago, and Severance isn’t a fan of Raleigh attempting the feat. Of hitting from both sides of the plate at a Home Run Derby, Severance says, “That seems a little complicated.”
While Raleigh grew up close to Atlanta in North Carolina, he’s not familiar with Truist Park, with just two prior games and four at-bats at the ballpark. That’s the second fewest in the field, only behind Caminero who has never played in the venue, and those two are the only of the eight derby participants to never homer at Truist Park in an MLB game. Being unfamiliar with the dimensions, sightlines and shadows of Truist shouldn’t be discounted for someone with the shortest odds.
Raleigh also has a couple of other factors working against him, with one being that no catcher has ever won the MLB Home Run Derby as it enters its 39th year. Perhaps the rigors of playing the position manifest in this type of event where stamina is important, as players could take over 100 swings if they advance to the final. Additionally, Raleigh doesn’t enter the All-Star break playing his best as he hit over .300 in both May and June but is at a paltry .107 so far in July. Again, that could point to the demands of playing catcher as backstops usually see their numbers dip as the season goes on. See Severance’s best bet for the 2025 Home Run Derby right here.
How to make 2025 Home Run Derby picks
Severance has analyzed the 2025 Home Run Derby field and has locked in a best bet who he says “might have the most power” in this year’s field. You can only get his pick and analysis at SportsLine.
So who wins the MLB Home Run Derby 2025? Visit SportsLine to see Severance’s top 2025 Home Run Derby picks, all from the MLB expert who has returned nearly $1,700 on his MLB picks, and find out.
2025 MLB Home Run Derby odds, participants
See 2025 MLB Home Run Derby picks here
Cal Raleigh +310
Oneil Cruz +330
James Wood +380
Byron Buxton +700
Matt Olson +950
Junior Caminero +1000
Brent Rooker +1000
Jazz Chisholm +1600