Social media influencer and boxer Jake Paul returns to the ring Saturday as a massive favorite against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.
In his first fight since winning by unanimous decision over Mike Tyson in November, Paul is -800 for his matchup against the former WBC middleweight titleholder. Chavez had three title defenses between 2011 and 2012 and last fought just under a year ago, taking a unanimous decision over former UFC fighter Uriah Hall, a bout coincidentally on the Paul-Mike Perry undercard.
This bout has all the feels of a Jake Paul domination, but the money-line price is too steep to play (unless you wanted to throw it in as an anchor of a parlay).
Instead, I’m looking at value plays. For starters, Paul, 28, is +140 to win by KO/TKO/DQ. With fight-ending power, facing an opponent 11 years his elder who has accumulated much more damage over the years, Paul winning by knockout wouldn’t shock me.
Another option to consider is a knockdown prop. Even if Paul were to win by decision, I could see him catching Chavez early on and dropping him to the canvas, a bet that is paying even money at ESPN BET. If you wanted to take it a step further and pick multiple knockdowns — something I definitely can see happening in this fight — that over bet sits at +150.
Also, worth consideration is playing Paul to win by decision. If you think Chavez is durable enough to last, you can get this bet at even money. Just be prepared to have some bumpy moments throughout the fight.
The 10-round main event is scheduled for 11 p.m. ET from the Honda Center in Anaheim, California (streaming on DAZN pay-per-view).