We’ve all been down this road before: Jo Adell is on a hot streak. This never ends well. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. And yet…
Last season, Adell set career highs across the board, but it still wasn’t enough to be on the fantasy radar, outside of deep AL-only formats. For the 2025 season (through games of Sunday, June 22), Adell ranks as the No. 55 outfielder on the ESPN Player Rater. As such, he’s been a streamer (at best) in standard ESPN leagues. However, since May 29, Adell has generated a .280/.365/.707 line, featuring 10 home runs. We’ve seen streaks like this before from Adell, and his history warns of impending doom. So, why should this season be any different?
Well, Adell’s usual pitfall is that his excessive strikeout total catches up with him. He’s still fanning at an above-average clip, but this time, it’s at a career-low pace and it marks the second straight season he’s improved his contact rate. Furthermore, the underlying metrics suggest that Adell should be well inside the top 50 outfielders. His average exit velocity and hard-hit and Barrel rates are all the best of his career. According to Statcast, Adell’s expected batting average is .264 with an expected slugging percentage of .547 (compared to his actual .224 and .479 levels).
By means of comparison, Seiya Suzuki’s average is .256 with a .539 slugging percentage, fewer than 10 points below Adell’s expected numbers. Suzuki checks in as the No. 15 fantasy outfielder. Of course, his 105 runs-plus-RBI are significantly more than Adell’s 65, which contributes to Suzuki’s elevated ranking. That said, if Adell were performing closer to his expected level, the difference of 40 runs-plus-RBI would be a lot less than it is.
The argument here isn’t that Adell has top-20 outfielder potential, but he certainly could break his trend of reverting to a less-useful second-half player and be fantasy-relevant going forward — even in standard ESPN leagues. Adell is currently available in over 91% of ESPN leagues.
Another name to consider
Michael Toglia, 1B, Colorado Rockies (available in 96.7% of ESPN leagues): After clubbing 25 homers in just 116 games last season, fantasy managers were intrigued by Toglia’s full-season potential if he could improve on last season’s 32.2% strikeout rate. However, through May 30, Toglia had hit just six homers through 54 games while punching out 39.1% of the time, earning himself a demotion to Triple-A Albuquerque.
In 11 games with the Isotopes, Toglia produced three homers while lowering his strikeout to a still high, but far more palatable 29.4%. Since his June 16 recall, he’s swatted three homers in six games for the Rockies (all on the road) while his strikeout rate sits at a slightly elevated 30.8%.
Admittedly, 11 games on the farm and six in the bigs isn’t a convincing sample, but the Rockies’ schedule is extremely favorable. They play 12 of their next 21 games at home, and their three road series are with the Milwaukee Brewers, Boston Red Sox and Cincinnati Reds — at three of the best hitting venues in the league.
Rotisserie-style player to add
Cam Smith, 3B/OF, Houston Astros (available in 90%): Houston’s patience with Smith has paid off. After losing playing time in early May, something has seemingly clicked. Since May 15, Smith’s line has been a healthy .308/.357/.453. A third baseman by trade, Smith’s hot spring led to him starting the season as the team’s regular right fielder. The positional change has been favorable, as Smith’s seven defensive runs saved ranks fourth at the position.
Being included in the rotisserie-style section suggests that Smith contributes to multiple categories. Expecting him to keep up his current pace, prorating his last 34 games generates 10 homers, 10 steals, 75 runs and 75 RBI going forward. Add in his multi-positional eligibility and Smith can definitely be a fantasy asset over the second half of the season.
Two-start pitcher to add
Chad Patrick, SP, Brewers (available in 89.6%): Patrick merits attention based solely on his performance to date. Add in the upcoming double-dip at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates and Rockies and the righty is the top pitching target of the week. Patrick is on tap to face the second- and third-lowest scoring road offenses.
The rookie has started 15 of his 16 outings with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. He has punched out 76 batters over 79 2/3 innings while allowing only eight homers. The Brewers are quietly developing the reputation for getting the most out of their arms, which is especially helpful since they do play half their games in hitter-friendly American Family Field.
Deeper-league pitching pickups
Last week in this space, Tristan H. Cockcroft recommended stashing Reds SP Chase Burns. That advice proved to be prescient, as the Reds are reportedly calling up Burns to start Tuesday’s home affair against the New York Yankees. The catch, however, is that not only would Burns have a tough debut opponent, but he’d also then be slated for road tilts with the Philadelphia Phillies and Red Sox, two more potent offenses. On the other hand, early in their respective developments, many scouts and talent evaluators considered Burns and Paul Skenes to be comparable. Food for thought.
Slade Cecconi, SP, Cleveland Guardians (97.9% available): Cecconi is emerging as another product of the Guardians’ pitching factory. The club targeted him when dealing Josh Naylor to the Arizona Diamondbacks. He struggled in May, with his first three games for Cleveland resulting a 5.28 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP, albeit with an impressive 17 strikeouts to just five walks over 15 1/3 frames. His issue was the five homers he served up. As usual, the Guardians helped Cecconi adjust and he has since delivered a 3.00 ERA and a 1.27 ERA over his most recent three outings, racking up another 17 strikeouts over 15 frames — all while yielding just one longball.
Janson Junk, SP, Miami Marlins (98.3% available): Junk is more of a flyer, but he has had some recent success as both a primary pitcher and starter. Plus, he’s ticketed for more starts with Max Meyer still sidelined. Junk’s calling card has been stellar command and control, along with fanning nearly a batter per inning. He only started once, but Junk has thrown at least four frames in every one of his six outings, resulting in 25 strikeouts and just two walks (with no homers allowed) in his 27 2/3 innings. Junk clearly won’t keep up this pace, but with a road game in San Francisco this week and a potential home date with the Twins next week, this is a pitcher worth considering.
Closer to add
Orion Kerkering, RP, Phillies, (95.5% available): Fantasy managers have been pining for Kerkering to capture the Phillies’ closer job for a couple of years. He may not collect every remaining opportunity, but with two saves over the past week, one can certainly say that he is in the ninth-inning mix. If there is one reliever on the club capable of earning manager Rob Thomson’s trust, it’s Kerkering.