The New York Liberty won the franchise’s first WNBA title this past October after a grind-it-out series against the Minnesota Lynx. Game 5 went to overtime, where the Liberty prevailed 67-62. The Lynx were devastated by the outcome and angry with the officiating. With both teams likely to bring back most of their rosters, the rivalry was expected to be just as red-hot in 2025.
But nine months later, they have yet to play this season. Their potential meeting in a second consecutive Commissioner’s Cup final evaporated with a Liberty loss to the Indiana Fever, who then took the Cup title over the Lynx on July 1.
Now the Liberty and Lynx finally meet again. The first of their four regular-season matchups is Wednesday at Target Center in Minneapolis (8 p.m. ET, ESPN). The first-place Lynx (22-5) have lost just one regular-season home game this season. Napheesa Collier, the All-Star Game MVP and the league’s leading scorer at 23.5 PPG, is the favorite for season MVP.
The Liberty, second in the standings at 17-8, have had more ups and downs due to injuries. Jonquel Jones, the 2024 Finals MVP, returned July 22 from an ankle injury and has played just 13 of New York’s 25 games. Two-time season MVP Breanna Stewart suffered a leg injury early in Saturday’s loss to Los Angeles and then missed Monday’s loss at Dallas. Her availability for Wednesday is uncertain.
ESPN’s Alexa Philippou, Kevin Pelton and Michael Voepel look at three factors that will determine Wednesday’s game when the Lynx at last take on the Liberty.
New season, different matchups
Pelton: When the Liberty are back at full strength, they’ll look different than last year’s team that played Betnijah Laney-Hamilton 28.8 MPG in the Finals. Laney-Hamilton saw extended time defensively on both of the Lynx’s All-Star guards, Kayla McBride and Courtney Williams. In her place, New York now has Natasha Cloud, who’s no stranger to Minnesota’s backcourt after facing the Lynx with the Phoenix Mercury in last year’s opening round of the playoffs.
By the deciding Game 5, Liberty coach Sandy Brondello was favoring bigger lineups with backup center Nyara Sabally alongside starter Jones and the 6-foot-4 forward duo of Leonie Fiebich and Stewart. Sabally had 13 points and seven boards in Game 5, playing 14 minutes with Jones.
Sabally won’t be available for Wednesday’s game as she manages knee discomfort. Due to her own absences and Jones missing 12 games, the two centers have played together just three minutes all season, per WNBA Advanced Stats. New York has Isabelle Harrison as a center option, but we’ll likely see smaller lineups from the Liberty than the ones that were effective against the Lynx in the 2024 Finals.
Showdown between the starting guards
Voepel: How will each team’s top guards rise to the occasion? Sabrina Ionescu leads the Liberty in scoring (19.3 PPG) and steals (1.5 SPG). She is second in assists (5.8) to Cloud (6.0), who also averages 10.1 PPG and has always been known for her defense.
Minnesota is Collier’s team, no question. She can single-handedly change the course of a game. But it makes a big difference when guards Williams (14.1 PPG, 6.1 APG) and McBride (14.0, 3.2) are “on.” That duo has combined for 98 3-pointers, compared to 89 for Ionescu and Cloud.
The Lynx’s 90-86 home loss to the Atlanta Dream on Sunday was an example of Collier excelling at everything (14 of 18 from the field for 32 points, plus 8 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 steals, 2 blocks) but not getting quite enough from everyone else, especially on the defensive end. For the season, the Lynx have allowed an average of just 75.4 PPG, best in the league. Collier is the reigning defensive player of the year, but again, Minnesota’s collective defense has propelled the Lynx to first place.
Which players are available for New York
Philippou: There’s no doubt about it: If Stewart is unavailable Wednesday, that would put a damper on what was such a highly anticipated Finals rematch. Notably, Brondello did not share a timeline for Stewart’s return when asked Monday, and it has been clear over the past two games that the Liberty are especially missing her on the defensive end. Sources told ESPN that while Stewart (right leg) avoided significant injury when she exited Saturday’s game, including any ligament damage, the team is taking a cautious approach and wants to give her time to recover, especially after she carried a heavier load when Jones was out with her ankle sprain.
The Liberty’s frontcourt depth has taken a toll this season with not only Sabally out much of this year but with Kennedy Burke also sidelined Monday. Burke was given a rest designation after she experienced cramps and missed the second half this weekend against the Sparks. Burke averaged just 7.5 minutes per game in the postseason last year but has been a much bigger part of the Liberty’s identity this season, averaging 21.8 minutes per game and shooting 47.5% from 3, and New York could use her on the floor Wednesday.
Without Burke and Stewart against the Wings, Brondello utilized her 10th different starting lineup of the summer, tied for the third most in the WNBA, and gave Harrison her first start of the season. But coming out of the locker room down 27 following a total defensive meltdown, Brondello went with a smaller lineup, replacing Harrison with Marine Johannes, and gave Stephanie Talbot more of a run.
The Liberty and the Lynx meet three more times in August — we can have a conversation another day on the bizarre scheduling of this series — with rematches set for Aug. 10 in New York, Aug. 16 in Minnesota and Aug. 19 back at Barclays.
And by then, New York will likely have Emma Meesseman — who was also courted by the Lynx before she decided to sign with the Liberty — incorporated into the fold. Sources told ESPN that Meesseman is working to secure her work visa and that her arrival is expected to happen sooner rather than later.
Still, New York’s recent injury bug — especially with Jones and Stewart impacted — underscores that its greatest hurdle in repeating might not be the Lynx, but whether the Liberty are healthy enough in September and October.